Munetaka Murakami, the latest big-time Japanese free agent, is headed to Chicago at a price lower than anyone expected.
The Yakult Swallows third baseman has reportedly agreed to a two-year, $34 million deal with the White Sox, according toMLB.com's Yuki YamadaandYahoo Sports' Russell Dorsey. Instead of a contender, he will join a rebuilding team.
At only 25 years old, Murakami possesses a level of both youth and raw power rarely seen available on the free-agent market, but concerns about his ability to make contact and defensive fit prevented him from landing the nine-figure deal many expected for him.
Yahoo Sports ranked Murakami as the sixth-best free agent this offseason.
The Swallowsposted Murakami on Nov. 8, beginning a 45-day window in which he was free to negotiate with all 30 MLB teams. The Swallows will receive a $6.575 million posting fee in return.
Munetaka Murakami's MLB arrival has been long-awaited
Murakami has been a name to know for years, beginning when he won Central League MVP in 2021 at 21 years old. That turned out to be only a warm-up act, as he proceeded to post one of the greatest seasons in NPB history in 2022.
In his age-22 season, Murakami broke the legendary Sadaharu Oh's 58-year-old NPB record for most homers by a Japanese player, with 56 long balls while slashing .318/.458/.710. He also became the youngest Triple Crown winner in NPB history.
After that season, Murakami signed a new contract with the Swallows thatreportedlycontained a clause requiring the team to post him following the 2025 season, the first offseason in which he would be eligible to sign a giant contract a la Yoshinobu Yamamoto (that's what Roki Sasaki gave up when he came over to MLB at age 23).
Murakami has known he wants to go to MLB for a long time, and the feeling was clearly mutual by 2022. The World Baseball Classic was very well-timed for building the hype, too, as American fans got to know him as the big Japanese bat to complement Japan's elite rotation.
Since then, Murakami has remained productive, but hasn't come close to replicating his 2022 season. He dealt with a couple of down years before surging back in 2025 in a season limited by injury, hitting .286/.392/.659, with 24 homers in 220 at-bats.
Munetaka Murakami might be MLB's riskiest free agent
Every major MLB contract comes with some level of risk. That's how professional sports work — some deals work out and some don't. But it's very rare you see a delta of outcomes as wide as Murakami's at this price range.
There is a conceivable world in which Murakami takes the field and immediately establishes himself as a third baseman with elite power and enough plate discipline to get on base regularly, at only 25 years old with plenty of prime ahead of him. That youth in particular is significant, as top free agents rarely hit free agency at that age.
However, there is also a very possible world in which Murakami cannot handle third base, cannot catch up to MLB velocity and cannot hit MLB breaking balls. That is not an MLB player.
Those are all real concerns about Murakami, especially in the time since his godly 2022 season. Here's what Fangraphs has to say about his ability to put the bat on the ball:
His contact rate tanks against fastballs 93 mph and above (just 63% since 2022) and, more recently, Murakami's contact rates versus secondary pitches have also plummeted. In 2025, Murakami had just a 51% contact rate against all secondary pitch types combined, much lower than any consistent, impact big league hitter. Contrast that with 2022-2023 Murakami, when his contact rate was 62% — not great, but better than 2025 by a meaningful margin.
They later added that Murakami "isn't a very rangy or handsy defender, and his arm strength barely passes at third." So a move to first appears in the cards, which would put even more pressure on his bat.
This isn't a list you would call encouraging, either.
In Japan, Munetaki Murakami hit a ball 117 mph (would be top ~6% in US) and made zone contact at a 72.6% rate (bottom 1%). Using Statcast zone contact rates on FanGraphs, here are comparable career batters (minimum 450, just to get Nick Kurtz on there for some sunshine).pic.twitter.com/SnMS5IjFDV
— Eno Sarris (@enosarris)December 18, 2025
In short, Murakami has made contact against Japanese pitching at a rate that would be bad even if his numbers perfectly translated to MLB. He has struck out in 28.6% of his plate appearances in the past three NPB seasons, which would rank as the ninth-worst mark among qualified batters this year. If he adds any more whiffs — which seems probable when the majority of MLB pitchers sit at 93 mph or above — we are approaching late-stage Adam Dunn territory.
That's why MLB teams didn't want to make a long-term investment in Murakami. Still, there are certainly MLB hitters who carve out a career while striking out a ton, and that's the path Murakami will be trying to follow. All but one of 2025's top-five home run hitters posted a strikeout rate above 25%.
Murakami simply has to crush the ball nearly every time he touches it. If he can, he'll hit free agency again at 27 years old and will demand a much higher price.
