After days of building up and tearing down expectations, it is looking like some snowflakes could fall as far south as north Florida this weekend.
Winter weather advisories have been updated to include a piece of the far northern portion of Florida and remain for much of central Georgia.
Some advisories across central Georgia have been updated to winter storm warnings, where 1-3 inches of snowfall is possible.
This snow is connected to a new storm system that is trying to crank up along the East Coast, which could eventually bring snowfall, or at least a wintry mix, to parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and the major cities of the Northeast.
What You Should Know:
- Lighter snow is possible across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Sunday
- Central Georgia is where the heaviest snowfall is expected
- Another strong, cold front will drop temperatures for much of the East beginning late Saturday and will last until at least Sunday
- Most areas outside of the Appalachians will see conversational flurries to up to 1 inch, if snow falls at all. This is not expected to be a widely disruptive snowstorm.
- Regardless of snowfall, cold air is expected across the South. Be prepared to protect your pipes, plants and pets
- Storm will likely move north along the East Coast, potentially bringing snowfall to major cities in the Northeast
- You should check back multiple times a day to see how this forecast changes
Deeper Dive: What's Going On?
A disturbance is likely to develop in the northeastern Gulf by late Saturday, then move north up the East Coast through Sunday. This will lead to mainly rain, with the possibility of some snow, on Sunday.
With the moisture already in place over the Southeast set to interact with the new shot of cold air, it is increasingly likely that some flakes will fall on the backside of this storm system from north Florida to New England on Sunday.
While for most, this will be more of a conversational or nuisance event, there may be enough snow to cause travel issues in parts of Georgia or Alabama, as noted in the blue color on the map below. Those in this region could see slippery roads and bridges.
The dark blue areas on the map below are where winter storm warnings are in effect, which is where the heaviest snowfall is forecast at this time.
As you can see on the graphic below, there is a lot of wiggle room in this forecast between paltry snowfall over 3 inches.
The key is to note that not all models are alike, and not all model runs of a particular model are alike, for that matter. Wild fluctuations in models are to be expected, which is why it is so important to check frequently for updates.
Outside of the Appalachians, our forecast, so far, has been for less than an inch of snow across the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. Some heavier snow is possible for New York City and Boston, which will be discussed in more detail below.
The Ingredients
The one thing we do have that is typically lacking from southern events is plentiful cold air. Frequent rounds of cold air enhance the chance of precipitation falling as anything but rain as the ground stays colder longer.
A fresh surge of frigid air will arrive in the South by late Saturday into Sunday.
While this cold air may not penetrate as far south as previous surges, it will bring overnight temperatures down into the teens, 20s and 30s nearly down to the Gulf Coast. Monday morning will be even chillier than Sunday morning, especially along the Atlantic coast and into Florida.
That all sounds great for snow, but the second ingredient is where this conversation turns into an "if" rather than a "when" type situation.
This second surge of air will also bring a surge of much drier continental air that will be less favorable for precipitation of any kind.
Dew points will generally be in the teens and 20s across much of the South. The lower the number, the drier the air.
Unless heavier snow can develop, this dry air will be the limiting factor for this sort of event that models are occasionally trying to advertise.
Snowfall For Northeast
This coastal low that will try to get its act together will likely move north along the East Coast into Sunday. With the cold air in place across the East, this means you are more likely to see snow in cities like New York City and Boston.
Snow totals are not expected to be substantial, with 1-3 inches being the most likely. Despite totals not being very high, blowing snow and increased traffic due to the long weekend means you may want to take delays into consideration.
Interesting to note that cities like New York City, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., and Boston are experiencing snow deficits this year. Boston, in particular, is over 10 inches below where it should be, so any new snowfall will help to chip away at these deficits.
Jonathan Belleshas been a digital meteorologist forweather.comfor 9 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.
