Today, satellites and computer models are among the tools forecasters use to warn us of hurricanes well ahead of time.
But near the end of World War II, those meteorological linchpins weren't available, and it led to a tragic decision that cost hundreds of lives.
Eighty-one years ago today, on Dec. 17, 1944, the U.S. Navy's 3rd Fleet Fast Carrier Task Force was in a refueling operation several hundred miles east of the Philippines, in one of the world's most notorious zones for tropical cyclones known as "Typhoon Alley."
Given the lack of available data at the time, there were conflicting signs. Seas began to build on Dec. 17, but forecasters at the Navy's Fleet Weather Center at Pearl Harbor believed any typhoon would turn northward well east of the refueling Navy fleet.
Adm. William Halsey's chief aerologist (a previous term for meteorologist), Cmdr. George Kosco, believed the typhoon was closer, but thought the mission could avoid it by continuing to head southeast.
Given all this input, Adm. Halsey ordered the fleet to continue the refueling mission.
Sadly, they were in the path of a small but strong typhoon. One of the ships picked up the typhoon on radar, but because the technology was still emerging, nobody on staff knew what it was.
By 10 a.m. local time the next morning, the barometer picked up a steep fall in pressure indicative of a typhoon ahead. Just a few hours later, hurricane-force winds and gusts up to 140 mph battered the fleet of ships.
The typhoon, later dubbed Cobra, capsized three destroyers and heavily damaged three other destroyers, five aircraft carriers and a cruiser. Over 100 aircraft were lost, many having to bail out in the ocean, unable to land on the listing or sinking carriers.
In all, 790 people were killed in what was consideredthe worst natural disaster in U.S. Navy history.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him onBluesky,X (formerly Twitter)andFacebook.
